Result: Uruguay 0-1 Spain
World Cup 2026 ·
Uruguay
Spain
✓ Pick WON — Spain or draw
locked · 255h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Uruguay fell to Spain 0-1. Goals: Á. Baena (42').
The market priced Spain as favorite at 64.5% — it held. The final score carried a 12.7% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Spain at 64.5% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · 1xBet
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 0-1 (the model gave it 12.7%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Uruguay – Spain
- 0–112.7%
- 0–212.5%
- 1–19.9%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Uruguay18.3% → 13.6%▼ 4.7
Draw23.9% → 22.6%▼ 1.3
Spain57.9% → 63.7%▲ 5.8
27 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Uruguay
Goals: 1.5 for · 1.5 against (avg)
Spain
Goals: 2.0 for · 0.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group H
- 1Spain3+57
- 2
Cape Verde Islands303 - 3Uruguay3-12
- 4
Saudi Arabia3-42
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Uruguay
G. de Arrascaeta
Midfielder · Flamengo
7.73
Serie A
31+24
G+A
M. Araújo
Midfielder · Sporting CP
7.41
at the World Cup
2+1
G+A
R. Zalazar
Midfielder · SC Braga
7.31
Primeira Liga
18+6
G+A
Spain
Aymeric Laporte
Defender · Athletic Club
7.74
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
Rodri
Midfielder · Manchester City
7.71
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Pedro Porro
Defender · Tottenham
7.67
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Uruguay vs Spain?+
It ended Uruguay 0-1 Spain at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: Á. Baena (42').
Who was the favorite in Uruguay vs Spain?+
The market had Spain as favorite at 64.5% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was Uruguay vs Spain played?+
It was played on Saturday 27 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
18+ · Edgely sells analysis, we don't process bets. If you bet, do it responsibly.