Uruguay vs Spain
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Spain wins
or double chance X2
Overall analysis · win probability
29.0%
1
Uruguay
21.6%
X
Empate
49.3%
2
Spain
Ventaja: Spain (+20.3%)
Uruguay – Spain
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
Poisson distribution over each team's goal averages. Transparent method — not a promise.
Uruguay
G. de Arrascaeta
Midfielder · Flamengo
7.73
Serie A
31+24
G+A
M. Araújo
Midfielder · Sporting CP
7.41
at the World Cup
2+1
G+A
R. Zalazar
Midfielder · SC Braga
7.31
Primeira Liga
18+6
G+A
Spain
Aymeric Laporte
Defender · Athletic Club
7.74
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
Rodri
Midfielder · Manchester City
7.71
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Pedro Porro
Defender · Tottenham
7.67
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
Recommendation
No draw: either side wins
Confidence: ★★★★★ · 78% prob
Team comparison
Breakdown by dimension
50%
Uruguay
Form
vs
75%
Spain
75%
Uruguay
Attack
vs
100%
Spain
25%
Uruguay
Defense
vs
100%
Spain
50%
Uruguay
Goals
vs
100%
Spain
100%
Uruguay
H2H
vs
0%
Spain
29%
Uruguay
Poisson
vs
49%
Spain