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Uruguay vs Spain

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WORLDCUP · FIFA World Cup 2026
·LIVE
Uruguay

Uruguay

VS
Spain

Spain

Match analysis view — no locked pick

AnalysisOddsStatisticsMatch info

Model prediction

Spain wins

or double chance X2

49%·★★★☆☆Spain

Uruguay – Spain

  1. 1–1
    9.1%
  2. 1–2
    9.1%
  3. 2–1
    6.8%
Both teams score: 67.2%Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%Expected goals: 3.5

Poisson distribution over each team's goal averages. Transparent method — not a promise.

Uruguay

  • G. de Arrascaeta

    G. de Arrascaeta

    Midfielder · Flamengo

    7.73

    Serie A

    31+24

    G+A

  • M. Araújo

    M. Araújo

    Midfielder · Sporting CP

    7.41

    at the World Cup

    2+1

    G+A

  • R. Zalazar

    R. Zalazar

    Midfielder · SC Braga

    7.31

    Primeira Liga

    18+6

    G+A

Spain

  • Aymeric Laporte

    Aymeric Laporte

    Defender · Athletic Club

    7.74

    at the World Cup

    0+1

    G+A

  • Rodri

    Rodri

    Midfielder · Manchester City

    7.71

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • Pedro Porro

    Pedro Porro

    Defender · Tottenham

    7.67

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

Overall analysis · win probability

29.0%

1

Uruguay

21.6%

X

Empate

49.3%

2

Spain

Ventaja: Spain (+20.3%)

Recommendation

No draw: either side wins

Confidence: ★★★★★ · 78% prob

Team comparison

FormAttackDefenseGoalsHistoricalPoisson
UruguaySpain

Breakdown by dimension

50%

Uruguay

Form

vs

75%

Spain

75%

Uruguay

Attack

vs

100%

Spain

25%

Uruguay

Defense

vs

100%

Spain

50%

Uruguay

Goals

vs

100%

Spain

100%

Uruguay

H2H

vs

0%

Spain

29%

Uruguay

Poisson

vs

49%

Spain