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Spain vs Belgium Prediction

World Cup 2026 · (your time)

WORLDCUP · 2h 45m
Spain

Spain

VS
Belgium

Belgium

📺 Broadcast (US): FOX · Telemundo · FOX One

▶ YOUTUBEThe first 10 minutes of every match stream free on the official broadcasters' channels.

Who's favored? (market probabilities)

Implied probabilities from the best available odds, bookmaker margin removed. Spain starts as favorite at 59.3%.

Spain
59.3%
1.69
Draw
24.3%
4.12
Belgium
16.4%
6.10

Best odds per outcome · Betfair

Correct score: top 3 most likely

We translate market odds into expected goals and from there into each scoreline's probability. Useful for sizing up the match — no exact score is ever 'safe'.

Spain – Belgium

  1. 1–0
    11.4%
  2. 2–0
    10.8%
  3. 1–1
    10.5%
Both teams score: 51.0%Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%Expected goals: 2.8

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

7/7today

Spain58.4% → 58.7%▲ 0.3

Draw24% → 24.1%▲ 0.1

Belgium17.6% → 17.2%▼ 0.4

4 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Compare odds across books+

Spain

Betfair 1.69Matchbook 1.69Betsson 1.68Nordic Bet 1.681xBet 1.67

Draw

1xBet 4.12Betclic (FR) 4.10Unibet (FR) 4.10LowVig.ag 4.03BetAnything 4.03

Belgium

Unibet (FR) 6.10Betfair 6.00Matchbook 6.00FanDuel 5.80Unibet (NL) 5.80

The gap between best and worst odds is your money — always shop the line.

Edgely's pick

PropSee free with account
★★★★
totalSee free with account
★★★+7.9%

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Recent form

Spain

DWWWW

Goals: 1.8 for · 0.0 against (avg)

Belgium

DDWWW

Goals: 2.6 for · 1.0 against (avg)

Full stats & AI analysis →

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

Spain

  • Aymeric Laporte

    Aymeric Laporte

    Defender · Athletic Club

    7.74

    at the World Cup

    0+1

    G+A

  • Rodri

    Rodri

    Midfielder · Manchester City

    7.71

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • Pedro Porro

    Pedro Porro

    Defender · Tottenham

    7.67

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

Belgium

  • L. Trossard

    L. Trossard

    Midfielder · Arsenal

    7.72

    at the World Cup

    2+2

    G+A

  • Y. Tielemans

    Y. Tielemans

    Midfielder · Aston Villa

    7.48

    at the World Cup

    2+0

    G+A

  • N. Raskin

    N. Raskin

    Midfielder · Rangers

    7.34

    at the World Cup

    0+2

    G+A

FAQ

Who is the favorite in Spain vs Belgium?+

Per market odds, Spain is the favorite with a 59.3% implied probability (odds 1.69).

What is the most likely score for Spain vs Belgium?+

Per the goals implied by market odds (Poisson distribution), the most likely score is Spain 1-0 Belgium at 11.4% probability. Note: even the most likely scoreline sits around 10-15% — it's decision info, not a promise.

When do Spain and Belgium play?+

This World Cup 2026 match kicks off Friday 10 July 2026 (19:00 UTC). This page shows the time converted to your timezone, with a countdown.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

More World Cup predictions

See the full World Cup hub →

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