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Result: USA 4-1 Paraguay

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
USA

USA

4–1
Paraguay

Paraguay

✓ Pick WON — USA

locked · 122h 13m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

USA beat Paraguay 4-1. Goals: D. Bobadilla (7', a.g.), F. Balogun (31'), F. Balogun (45'+5'), Maurício (73'), G. Reyna (90'+8').

The market priced USA as favorite at 46.9% — it held. The final score carried a 1.5% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was USA at 46.9% — it held.

USA
46.9%
2.14
Draw
28.9%
3.47
Paraguay
24.2%
4.15

Best odds per outcome · Betfair

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 4-1 (the model gave it 1.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

USA – Paraguay

  1. 1–0
    13.2%
  2. 1–1
    12.6%
  3. 2–0
    9.4%
Both teams score: 46.6%Over 2.5 goals: 42.3%Expected goals: 2.4

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

USA47.5% → 47.1%▼ 0.4

Draw27.1% → 28.8%▲ 1.7

Paraguay25.4% → 24.2%▼ 1.2

16 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

ResultUSA
✓ GANADO★★★+12.3%2.08

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Group standings

Group D

  1. 1USAUSA3+46
  2. 2AustraliaAustralia304
  3. 3ParaguayParaguay3-24
  4. 4TürkiyeTürkiye3-23

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

USA

  • S. Berhalter

    S. Berhalter

    Midfielder · Vancouver Whitecaps

    7.53

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

  • C. Roldan

    C. Roldan

    Midfielder · Seattle Sounders

    7.52

    Major League Soccer

    2+4

    G+A

  • A. Freeman

    A. Freeman

    Defender · Orlando City SC

    7.46

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

Paraguay

  • O. Gill

    O. Gill

    Goalkeeper · San Lorenzo

    7.6

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • J. Canale

    J. Canale

    Defender · Lanus

    7.14

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • F. Balbuena

    F. Balbuena

    Defender · Gremio

    7.13

    Serie A

    1+0

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of USA vs Paraguay?+

It ended USA 4-1 Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: D. Bobadilla (7'), F. Balogun (31'), F. Balogun (45'+5'), Maurício (73'), G. Reyna (90'+8').

Who was the favorite in USA vs Paraguay?+

The market had USA as favorite at 46.9% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was USA vs Paraguay played?+

It was played on Saturday 13 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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