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Result: USA 2-0 Australia

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
USA

USA

2–0
Australia

Australia

✓ Pick WON — USA

locked · 184h 16m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

USA beat Australia 2-0. Goals: C. Burgess (11', a.g.), A. Freeman (43').

The market priced USA as favorite at 60.9% — it held. The final score carried a 11.5% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was USA at 60.9% — it held.

USA
60.9%
1.65
Draw
21.8%
4.60
Australia
17.3%
5.80

Best odds per outcome · Matchbook

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-0 (the model gave it 11.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

USA – Australia

  1. 1–0
    12.5%
  2. 2–0
    11.5%
  3. 1–1
    10.7%
Both teams score: 48.1%Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%Expected goals: 2.7

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

USA53.7% → 60.3%▲ 6.6

Draw26% → 22.1%▼ 3.9

Australia20.3% → 17.6%▼ 2.7

23 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

PropUSA or draw
✓ GANADO★★★★★1.09
Propbtts yes
✗ PERDIDO★★★★★1.20
totalover 1.5
✓ GANADO★★★★1.40
Propover 0.5 1h
✓ GANADO★★★★1.36
ResultUSA
✓ GANADO★★★+8.6%1.81

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Recent form

USA

W

Goals: 4.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)

Australia

W

Goals: 2.0 for · 0.0 against (avg)

Full stats & AI analysis →

Group standings

Group D

  1. 1USAUSA3+46
  2. 2AustraliaAustralia304
  3. 3ParaguayParaguay3-24
  4. 4TürkiyeTürkiye3-23

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

USA

  • S. Berhalter

    S. Berhalter

    Midfielder · Vancouver Whitecaps

    7.53

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

  • C. Roldan

    C. Roldan

    Midfielder · Seattle Sounders

    7.52

    Major League Soccer

    2+4

    G+A

  • A. Freeman

    A. Freeman

    Defender · Orlando City SC

    7.46

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

Australia

  • P. Beach

    P. Beach

    Goalkeeper · Melbourne City

    7.43

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • A. Circati

    A. Circati

    Defender · Parma

    7.42

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • J. Irvine

    J. Irvine

    Midfielder · FC St. Pauli

    7.25

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of USA vs Australia?+

It ended USA 2-0 Australia at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: C. Burgess (11'), A. Freeman (43').

Who was the favorite in USA vs Australia?+

The market had USA as favorite at 60.9% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was USA vs Australia played?+

It was played on Friday 19 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

More World Cup predictions

See the full World Cup hub →

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