Result: Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde
World Cup 2026 ·
Uruguay
Cape Verde
✓ Pick WON — Cape Verde or draw
locked · 133h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Uruguay drew with Cape Verde 2-2. Goals: K. Pina (21'), M. Araújo (44'), A. Canobbio (45'+6'), H. Varela (61').
The market priced Uruguay as favorite at 66.6% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 2.5% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Uruguay at 66.6% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · 1xBet
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-2 (the model gave it 2.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Uruguay – Cape Verde
- 1–016.8%
- 2–015.1%
- 1–19.6%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Uruguay65.4% → 65.7%▲ 0.3
Draw21.2% → 22.9%▲ 1.7
Cape Verde13.4% → 11.4%▼ 2
25 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Uruguay
Goals: 1.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Cape Verde Islands
Goals: 0.0 for · 0.0 against (avg)
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Uruguay
G. de Arrascaeta
Midfielder · Flamengo
7.73
Serie A
31+24
G+A
M. Araújo
Midfielder · Sporting CP
7.41
at the World Cup
2+1
G+A
R. Zalazar
Midfielder · SC Braga
7.31
Primeira Liga
18+6
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Uruguay vs Cape Verde?+
It ended Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: K. Pina (21'), M. Araújo (44'), A. Canobbio (45'+6'), H. Varela (61').
Who was the favorite in Uruguay vs Cape Verde?+
The market had Uruguay as favorite at 66.6% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Uruguay vs Cape Verde played?+
It was played on Sunday 21 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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