Result: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium
World Cup 2026 ·
New Zealand
Belgium
✓ Pick WON — over 1.5
locked · 258h 17m before kickoff
What happened
New Zealand fell to Belgium 1-5. Goals: L. Trossard (28'), L. Trossard (50'), K. De Bruyne (66'), E. Just (84'), R. Lukaku (86'), A. Saelemaekers (90'+4').
The market priced Belgium as favorite at 82% — it held. The final score carried a 2.4% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Belgium at 82% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · GTbets
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-5 (the model gave it 2.4%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
New Zealand – Belgium
- 0–214.8%
- 0–312.9%
- 0–111.2%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
New Zealand9.6% → 6.4%▼ 3.2
Draw16.3% → 13.2%▼ 3.1
Belgium74.1% → 80.4%▲ 6.3
27 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
New Zealand
Goals: 1.5 for · 2.5 against (avg)
Belgium
Goals: 0.5 for · 0.5 against (avg)
Group standings
Group G
- 1Belgium3+45
- 2
Egypt3+25 - 3
Iran303 - 4New Zealand3-61
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
New Zealand
E. Just
Midfielder · Motherwell
7.85
at the World Cup
3+0
G+A
F. de Vries
Defender · Auckland
7.32
A-League
1+7
G+A
A. Rufer
Midfielder · Wellington Phoenix
7.18
A-League
2+1
G+A
Belgium
L. Trossard
Midfielder · Arsenal
7.72
at the World Cup
2+2
G+A
Y. Tielemans
Midfielder · Aston Villa
7.48
at the World Cup
2+0
G+A
N. Raskin
Midfielder · Rangers
7.34
at the World Cup
0+2
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of New Zealand vs Belgium?+
It ended New Zealand 1-5 Belgium at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: L. Trossard (28'), L. Trossard (50'), K. De Bruyne (66'), E. Just (84'), R. Lukaku (86'), A. Saelemaekers (90'+4').
Who was the favorite in New Zealand vs Belgium?+
The market had Belgium as favorite at 82% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was New Zealand vs Belgium played?+
It was played on Saturday 27 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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