Result: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden
World Cup 2026 ·
Netherlands
Sweden
✗ Pick LOST — Sweden or draw
locked · 128h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1. Goals: B. Brobbey (5'), B. Brobbey (17'), C. Gakpo (47'), C. Gakpo (54'), A. Elanga (59'), C. Summerville (89').
The market priced Netherlands as favorite at 56.4% — it held. The final score carried a 1.2% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Netherlands at 56.4% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · Matchbook
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 5-1 (the model gave it 1.2%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Netherlands – Sweden
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Netherlands56.4% → 56.2%▼ 0.2
Draw24.3% → 23.4%▼ 0.9
Sweden19.3% → 20.4%▲ 1.1
24 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Netherlands
Goals: 2.0 for · 2.0 against (avg)
Sweden
Goals: 5.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group F
- 1Netherlands3+67
- 2
Japan3+45 - 3Sweden304
- 4
Tunisia3-100
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Netherlands
C. Summerville
Attacker · West Ham
7.67
at the World Cup
2+2
G+A
J. van Hecke
Defender · Brighton
7.64
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
C. Gakpo
Attacker · Liverpool
7.41
at the World Cup
3+1
G+A
Sweden
J. Widell Zetterström
Goalkeeper · Derby
7.95
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Y. Ayari
Midfielder · Brighton
7.27
at the World Cup
2+0
G+A
H. Johansson
Midfielder · Mjallby AIF
7.24
Allsvenskan
7+8
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Netherlands vs Sweden?+
It ended Netherlands 5-1 Sweden at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: B. Brobbey (5'), B. Brobbey (17'), C. Gakpo (47'), C. Gakpo (54'), A. Elanga (59'), C. Summerville (89').
Who was the favorite in Netherlands vs Sweden?+
The market had Netherlands as favorite at 56.4% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was Netherlands vs Sweden played?+
It was played on Saturday 20 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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