Result: Netherlands 2-2 Japan
World Cup 2026 ·
Netherlands
Japan
✗ Pick LOST — Netherlands
locked · 165h 13m before kickoff
What happened
Netherlands drew with Japan 2-2. Goals: V. van Dijk (51'), K. Nakamura (57'), C. Summerville (64'), D. Kamada (89').
The market priced Netherlands as favorite at 47.2% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 5.0% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Netherlands at 47.2% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · Matchbook
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-2 (the model gave it 5.0%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Netherlands – Japan
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.3%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Netherlands47.2% → 47.4%▲ 0.2
Draw26.2% → 26.7%▲ 0.5
Japan26.6% → 25.9%▼ 0.7
18 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Group standings
Group F
- 1Netherlands3+67
- 2Japan3+45
- 3
Sweden304 - 4
Tunisia3-100
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Netherlands
C. Summerville
Attacker · West Ham
7.67
at the World Cup
2+2
G+A
J. van Hecke
Defender · Brighton
7.64
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
C. Gakpo
Attacker · Liverpool
7.41
at the World Cup
3+1
G+A
Japan
K. Itakura
Defender · Ajax
7.63
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
T. Tomiyasu
Defender · Ajax
7.55
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
A. Tanaka
Midfielder · Leeds
7.33
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Netherlands vs Japan?+
It ended Netherlands 2-2 Japan at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: V. van Dijk (51'), K. Nakamura (57'), C. Summerville (64'), D. Kamada (89').
Who was the favorite in Netherlands vs Japan?+
The market had Netherlands as favorite at 47.2% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Netherlands vs Japan played?+
It was played on Sunday 14 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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