Result: Mexico 1-0 South Korea
World Cup 2026 ·
Mexico
South Korea
✓ Pick WON — Mexico
locked · 166h 16m before kickoff
What happened
Mexico beat South Korea 1-0. Goals: L. Romo (50').
The market priced Mexico as favorite at 47% — it held. The final score carried a 13.5% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Mexico at 47% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · Betfair
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-0 (the model gave it 13.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Mexico – South Korea
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.5%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Mexico52.1% → 47.2%▼ 4.9
Draw27.6% → 28.9%▲ 1.3
South Korea20.4% → 23.9%▲ 3.5
22 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Mexico
Goals: 2.0 for · 0.0 against (avg)
South Korea
Goals: 2.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group A
- 1Mexico3+69
- 2
South Africa3-14 - 3South Korea3-13
- 4
Czechia3-41
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Mexico
M. Chávez
Defender · AZ Alkmaar
8.2
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
J. Quiñones
Midfielder · Al-Qadisiyah FC
7.73
at the World Cup
4+1
G+A
A. Vega
Attacker · Toluca
7.57
Liga MX
4+14
G+A
South Korea
Lee Dong-Gyeong
Attacker · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
7.86
K League 1
9+7
G+A
Song Bum-Keun
Goalkeeper · Jeonbuk Motors
7.46
K League 1
0+0
G+A
Hwang In-Beom
Midfielder · Feyenoord
7.43
at the World Cup
1+1
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Korea?+
It ended Mexico 1-0 South Korea at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: L. Romo (50').
Who was the favorite in Mexico vs South Korea?+
The market had Mexico as favorite at 47% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was Mexico vs South Korea played?+
It was played on Friday 19 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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