Result: Mexico 2-0 South Africa
World Cup 2026 ·
Mexico
South Africa
✓ Pick WON — Mexico
locked · 92h 13m before kickoff
What happened
Mexico beat South Africa 2-0. Goals: J. Quiñones (9'), R. Jiménez (67').
The market priced Mexico as favorite at 68.4% — it held. The final score carried a 15.3% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Mexico at 68.4% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · GTbets
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-0 (the model gave it 15.3%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Mexico – South Africa
- 1–016.5%
- 2–015.3%
- 3–09.5%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Mexico64.2% → 67.1%▲ 2.9
Draw22.4% → 21.6%▼ 0.8
South Africa13.4% → 11.3%▼ 2.1
15 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Group standings
Group A
- 1Mexico3+69
- 2South Africa3-14
- 3
South Korea3-13 - 4
Czechia3-41
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Mexico
M. Chávez
Defender · AZ Alkmaar
8.2
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
J. Quiñones
Midfielder · Al-Qadisiyah FC
7.73
at the World Cup
4+1
G+A
A. Vega
Attacker · Toluca
7.57
Liga MX
4+14
G+A
South Africa
S. Kabini
Defender · Molde
7.33
Eliteserien
1+3
G+A
T. Matuludi
Defender · Polokwane City
7.32
Premier Soccer League
2+0
G+A
K. Sebelebele
Midfielder · Orlando Pirates
7.26
Premier Soccer League
5+1
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Mexico vs South Africa?+
It ended Mexico 2-0 South Africa at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: J. Quiñones (9'), R. Jiménez (67').
Who was the favorite in Mexico vs South Africa?+
The market had Mexico as favorite at 68.4% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was Mexico vs South Africa played?+
It was played on Thursday 11 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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