Result: Japan 1-1 Sweden
World Cup 2026 ·
Japan
Sweden
✓ Pick WON — Sweden or draw
locked · 254h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Japan drew with Sweden 1-1. Goals: D. Maeda (56'), A. Elanga (62').
The market priced Japan as favorite at 50.7% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 11.1% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Japan at 50.7% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · 1xBet
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-1 (the model gave it 11.1%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Japan – Sweden
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Japan45.5% → 50.4%▲ 4.9
Draw27.8% → 27.7%▼ 0.1
Sweden26.7% → 21.9%▼ 4.8
28 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Japan
Goals: 3.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Sweden
Goals: 3.0 for · 3.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group F
- 1
Netherlands3+67 - 2Japan3+45
- 3Sweden304
- 4
Tunisia3-100
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Japan
K. Itakura
Defender · Ajax
7.63
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
T. Tomiyasu
Defender · Ajax
7.55
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
A. Tanaka
Midfielder · Leeds
7.33
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Sweden
J. Widell Zetterström
Goalkeeper · Derby
7.95
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Y. Ayari
Midfielder · Brighton
7.27
at the World Cup
2+0
G+A
H. Johansson
Midfielder · Mjallby AIF
7.24
Allsvenskan
7+8
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Japan vs Sweden?+
It ended Japan 1-1 Sweden at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: D. Maeda (56'), A. Elanga (62').
Who was the favorite in Japan vs Sweden?+
The market had Japan as favorite at 50.7% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Japan vs Sweden played?+
It was played on Thursday 25 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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