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Result: England 4-2 Croatia

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
England

England

4–2
Croatia

Croatia

✓ Pick WON — England

locked · 237h 13m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

England beat Croatia 4-2. Goals: H. Kane (12', pen), M. Baturina (36'), H. Kane (42'), P. Musa (45'+5'), J. Bellingham (47'), M. Rashford (85').

The market priced England as favorite at 56.4% — it held. The final score carried a 0.9% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was England at 56.4% — it held.

England
56.4%
1.78
Draw
25.4%
3.95
Croatia
18.2%
5.50

Best odds per outcome · Matchbook

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 4-2 (the model gave it 0.9%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

England – Croatia

  1. 1–0
    13.9%
  2. 1–1
    11.5%
  3. 2–0
    11.4%
Both teams score: 45.3%Over 2.5 goals: 44.8%Expected goals: 2.5

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

England54.6% → 55.7%▲ 1.1

Draw25.3% → 25.5%▲ 0.2

Croatia20.2% → 18.8%▼ 1.4

21 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

ResultEngland
✓ GANADO★★★+10.4%1.78

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Group standings

Group L

  1. 1EnglandEngland3+47
  2. 2CroatiaCroatia306
  3. 3GhanaGhana304
  4. 4PanamaPanama3-40

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

England

  • J. Bellingham

    J. Bellingham

    Midfielder · Real Madrid

    7.82

    at the World Cup

    4+1

    G+A

  • H. Kane

    H. Kane

    Attacker · Bayern München

    7.6

    at the World Cup

    6+1

    G+A

  • E. Anderson

    E. Anderson

    Midfielder · Nottingham Forest

    7.4

    at the World Cup

    0+1

    G+A

Croatia

  • P. Sucic

    P. Sucic

    Midfielder · Inter

    7.21

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

  • P. Musa

    P. Musa

    Attacker · FC Dallas

    7.18

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

  • M. Baturina

    M. Baturina

    Midfielder · Como

    7.17

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of England vs Croatia?+

It ended England 4-2 Croatia at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: H. Kane (12'), M. Baturina (36'), H. Kane (42'), P. Musa (45'+5'), J. Bellingham (47'), M. Rashford (85').

Who was the favorite in England vs Croatia?+

The market had England as favorite at 56.4% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was England vs Croatia played?+

It was played on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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