Result: Ecuador 2-1 Germany
World Cup 2026 ·
Ecuador
Germany
✗ Pick LOST — Germany or draw
locked · 251h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Ecuador beat Germany 2-1. Goals: L. Sané (2'), N. Angulo (9'), G. Plata (77').
The market priced Germany as favorite at 52.5% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 6.2% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Germany at 52.5% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · 1xBet
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-1 (the model gave it 6.2%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Ecuador – Germany
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.7%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Ecuador19% → 25.3%▲ 6.3
Draw24.9% → 23.7%▼ 1.2
Germany56.1% → 51%▼ 5.1
28 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Ecuador
Goals: 0.0 for · 0.5 against (avg)
Germany
Goals: 4.5 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group E
- 1Germany3+66
- 2
Ivory Coast3+26 - 3Ecuador304
- 4
Curaçao3-81
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Ecuador
G. Valle
Goalkeeper · LDU de Quito
7.63
CONMEBOL Libertadores
0+0
G+A
M. Caicedo
Midfielder · Chelsea
7.5
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
P. Vite
Midfielder · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
7.48
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
Germany
N. Schlotterbeck
Defender · Borussia Dortmund
7.9
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
F. Wirtz
Midfielder · Liverpool
7.75
at the World Cup
0+3
G+A
N. Amiri
Midfielder · FSV Mainz 05
7.45
Bundesliga
17+3
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Ecuador vs Germany?+
It ended Ecuador 2-1 Germany at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: L. Sané (2'), N. Angulo (9'), G. Plata (77').
Who was the favorite in Ecuador vs Germany?+
The market had Germany as favorite at 52.5% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Ecuador vs Germany played?+
It was played on Thursday 25 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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