Result: Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao
World Cup 2026 ·
Ecuador
Curaçao
✓ Pick WON — Ecuador or draw
locked · 135h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Ecuador drew with Curaçao 0-0.
The market priced Ecuador as favorite at 87.6% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 3.8% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Ecuador at 87.6% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · Matchbook
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 0-0 (the model gave it 3.8%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Ecuador – Curaçao
- 2–016.0%
- 3–015.3%
- 1–011.1%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (3.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Ecuador76.1% → 85.8%▲ 9.7
Draw16% → 10%▼ 6
Curaçao7.9% → 4.2%▼ 3.7
24 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Ecuador
Goals: 0.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Curaçao
Goals: 1.0 for · 7.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group E
- 1
Germany3+66 - 2
Ivory Coast3+26 - 3Ecuador304
- 4Curaçao3-81
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Ecuador
G. Valle
Goalkeeper · LDU de Quito
7.63
CONMEBOL Libertadores
0+0
G+A
M. Caicedo
Midfielder · Chelsea
7.5
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
P. Vite
Midfielder · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
7.48
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
Curaçao
K. Felida
Midfielder · Den Bosch
7.3
Eerste Divisie
4+3
G+A
E. Room
Goalkeeper · Cercle Brugge
7.23
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
J. Margaritha
Attacker · Phoenix Rising
6.98
US Open Cup
19+17
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Ecuador vs Curaçao?+
It ended Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao at the 2026 World Cup.
Who was the favorite in Ecuador vs Curaçao?+
The market had Ecuador as favorite at 87.6% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Ecuador vs Curaçao played?+
It was played on Sunday 21 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
18+ · Edgely sells analysis, we don't process bets. If you bet, do it responsibly.