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Result: Turkey 3-2 USA

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
Turkey

Turkey

3–2
USA

USA

✗ Pick LOST — USA or draw

locked · 257h 17m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

Turkey beat USA 3-2. Goals: A. Trusty (3'), A. Güler (10'), B. Yilmaz (31'), S. Berhalter (49'), K. Ayhan (90'+8').

The market priced USA as favorite at 51% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 2.1% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was USA at 51% — it didn't hold.

USA
51%
1.99
Turkey
25.4%
4.00
Draw
23.6%
4.30

Best odds per outcome · 1xBet

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 3-2 (the model gave it 2.1%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

Turkey – USA

  1. 1–1
    11.1%
  2. 0–1
    9.7%
  3. 1–2
    9.7%
Both teams score: 56.3%Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%Expected goals: 2.9

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

Turkey34.5% → 26.5%▼ 8

Draw28.2% → 23.4%▼ 4.8

USA37.3% → 50.1%▲ 12.8

28 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

PropUSA or draw
✗ PERDIDO★★★★★1.04
totalover 2.5
✓ GANADO★★★★+27.0%1.87
Propover 0.5 1h
✓ GANADO★★★★1.36

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Recent form

Türkiye

LL

Goals: 0.0 for · 1.5 against (avg)

USA

WW

Goals: 3.0 for · 0.5 against (avg)

Full stats & AI analysis →

Group standings

Group D

  1. 1USAUSA3+46
  2. 2AustraliaAustralia304
  3. 3ParaguayParaguay3-24
  4. 4TürkiyeTürkiye3-23

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

Turkey

  • A. Güler

    A. Güler

    Midfielder · Real Madrid

    7.7

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

  • E. Elmali

    E. Elmali

    Defender · Galatasaray

    7.52

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • I. Yüksek

    I. Yüksek

    Midfielder · Fenerbahçe

    7.29

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

USA

  • S. Berhalter

    S. Berhalter

    Midfielder · Vancouver Whitecaps

    7.53

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

  • C. Roldan

    C. Roldan

    Midfielder · Seattle Sounders

    7.52

    Major League Soccer

    2+4

    G+A

  • A. Freeman

    A. Freeman

    Defender · Orlando City SC

    7.46

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of Turkey vs USA?+

It ended Turkey 3-2 USA at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: A. Trusty (3'), A. Güler (10'), B. Yilmaz (31'), S. Berhalter (49'), K. Ayhan (90'+8').

Who was the favorite in Turkey vs USA?+

The market had USA as favorite at 51% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.

When was Turkey vs USA played?+

It was played on Friday 26 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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