Result: Turkey 0-1 Paraguay
World Cup 2026 ·
Turkey
Paraguay
✗ Pick LOST — Turkey
locked · 192h 16m before kickoff
What happened
Turkey fell to Paraguay 0-1. Goals: M. Galarza (2').
The market priced Turkey as favorite at 47.9% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 8.0% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Turkey at 47.9% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · Matchbook
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 0-1 (the model gave it 8.0%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Turkey – Paraguay
- 1–112.2%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.3%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Turkey41.9% → 47.2%▲ 5.3
Draw30.4% → 27.9%▼ 2.5
Paraguay27.7% → 25%▼ 2.7
23 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Türkiye
Goals: 0.0 for · 2.0 against (avg)
Paraguay
Goals: 1.0 for · 4.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group D
- 1
USA3+46 - 2
Australia304 - 3Paraguay3-24
- 4Türkiye3-23
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Turkey
A. Güler
Midfielder · Real Madrid
7.7
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
E. Elmali
Defender · Galatasaray
7.52
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
I. Yüksek
Midfielder · Fenerbahçe
7.29
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Paraguay
O. Gill
Goalkeeper · San Lorenzo
7.6
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
J. Canale
Defender · Lanus
7.14
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
F. Balbuena
Defender · Gremio
7.13
Serie A
1+0
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Turkey vs Paraguay?+
It ended Turkey 0-1 Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: M. Galarza (2').
Who was the favorite in Turkey vs Paraguay?+
The market had Turkey as favorite at 47.9% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Turkey vs Paraguay played?+
It was played on Saturday 20 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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