Result: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands
World Cup 2026 ·
Tunisia
Netherlands
✓ Pick WON — Netherlands or draw
locked · 230h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Tunisia fell to Netherlands 1-3. Goals: E. Skhiri (3', a.g.), B. Brobbey (7'), H. Mastouri (54'), J. van Hecke (62').
The market priced Netherlands as favorite at 86.5% — it held. The final score carried a 6.5% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Netherlands at 86.5% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · GTbets
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-3 (the model gave it 6.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Tunisia – Netherlands
- 0–214.8%
- 0–314.3%
- 0–410.4%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (3.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Tunisia15.6% → 4.1%▼ 11.5
Draw23.4% → 11.2%▼ 12.2
Netherlands61.1% → 84.7%▲ 23.6
28 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Tunisia
Goals: 0.5 for · 4.5 against (avg)
Netherlands
Goals: 3.5 for · 1.5 against (avg)
Group standings
Group F
- 1Netherlands3+67
- 2
Japan3+45 - 3
Sweden304 - 4Tunisia3-100
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Tunisia
H. Mastouri
Attacker · Dinamo Makhachkala
7.9
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
H. Mejbri
Midfielder · Burnley
7.07
at the World Cup
0+2
G+A
M. Neffati
Defender · IFK Norrkoping
7.02
Allsvenskan
1+4
G+A
Netherlands
C. Summerville
Attacker · West Ham
7.67
at the World Cup
2+2
G+A
J. van Hecke
Defender · Brighton
7.64
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
C. Gakpo
Attacker · Liverpool
7.41
at the World Cup
3+1
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Tunisia vs Netherlands?+
It ended Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: E. Skhiri (3'), B. Brobbey (7'), H. Mastouri (54'), J. van Hecke (62').
Who was the favorite in Tunisia vs Netherlands?+
The market had Netherlands as favorite at 86.5% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was Tunisia vs Netherlands played?+
It was played on Thursday 25 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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