Result: Tunisia 0-4 Japan
World Cup 2026 ·
Tunisia
Japan
✓ Pick WON — Japan or draw
locked · 139h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Tunisia fell to Japan 0-4.
The market priced Japan as favorite at 62.5% — it held. The final score carried a 3.5% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Japan at 62.5% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · Matchbook
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 0-4 (the model gave it 3.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Tunisia – Japan
- 0–114.8%
- 0–213.2%
- 1–110.5%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Tunisia20.3% → 15.2%▼ 5.1
Draw28.4% → 24%▼ 4.4
Japan51.3% → 60.8%▲ 9.5
24 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Tunisia
Goals: 1.0 for · 5.0 against (avg)
Japan
Goals: 2.0 for · 2.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group F
- 1
Netherlands3+67 - 2Japan3+45
- 3
Sweden304 - 4Tunisia3-100
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Tunisia
H. Mastouri
Attacker · Dinamo Makhachkala
7.9
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
H. Mejbri
Midfielder · Burnley
7.07
at the World Cup
0+2
G+A
M. Neffati
Defender · IFK Norrkoping
7.02
Allsvenskan
1+4
G+A
Japan
K. Itakura
Defender · Ajax
7.63
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
T. Tomiyasu
Defender · Ajax
7.55
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
A. Tanaka
Midfielder · Leeds
7.33
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Tunisia vs Japan?+
It ended Tunisia 0-4 Japan at the 2026 World Cup.
Who was the favorite in Tunisia vs Japan?+
The market had Japan as favorite at 62.5% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was Tunisia vs Japan played?+
It was played on Sunday 21 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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