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Result: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
Sweden

Sweden

5–1
Tunisia

Tunisia

✓ Pick WON — Sweden

locked · 171h 13m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1. Goals: Y. Ayari (7'), A. Isak (30'), O. Rekik (43'), V. Gyökeres (59'), M. Svanberg (84'), Y. Ayari (90'+6').

The market priced Sweden as favorite at 50.4% — it held. The final score carried a 0.5% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Sweden at 50.4% — it held.

Sweden
50.4%
2.00
Draw
28.2%
3.58
Tunisia
21.4%
4.70

Best odds per outcome · Matchbook

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 5-1 (the model gave it 0.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

Sweden – Tunisia

  1. 1–0
    13.3%
  2. 1–1
    12.2%
  3. 2–0
    10.1%
Both teams score: 46.9%Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%Expected goals: 2.4

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

Sweden48.7% → 49.5%▲ 0.8

Draw27.9% → 27.8%▼ 0.1

Tunisia23.4% → 22.7%▼ 0.7

18 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

ResultSweden
✓ GANADO★★★+17.2%2.02

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Group standings

Group F

  1. 1NetherlandsNetherlands3+67
  2. 2JapanJapan3+45
  3. 3SwedenSweden304
  4. 4TunisiaTunisia3-100

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

Sweden

  • J. Widell Zetterström

    J. Widell Zetterström

    Goalkeeper · Derby

    7.95

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • Y. Ayari

    Y. Ayari

    Midfielder · Brighton

    7.27

    at the World Cup

    2+0

    G+A

  • H. Johansson

    H. Johansson

    Midfielder · Mjallby AIF

    7.24

    Allsvenskan

    7+8

    G+A

Tunisia

  • H. Mastouri

    H. Mastouri

    Attacker · Dinamo Makhachkala

    7.9

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

  • H. Mejbri

    H. Mejbri

    Midfielder · Burnley

    7.07

    at the World Cup

    0+2

    G+A

  • M. Neffati

    M. Neffati

    Defender · IFK Norrkoping

    7.02

    Allsvenskan

    1+4

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of Sweden vs Tunisia?+

It ended Sweden 5-1 Tunisia at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: Y. Ayari (7'), A. Isak (30'), O. Rekik (43'), V. Gyökeres (59'), M. Svanberg (84'), Y. Ayari (90'+6').

Who was the favorite in Sweden vs Tunisia?+

The market had Sweden as favorite at 50.4% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was Sweden vs Tunisia played?+

It was played on Monday 15 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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