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Result: Senegal 5-0 Iraq

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
Senegal

Senegal

5–0
Iraq

Iraq

✓ Pick WON — over 0.5 1h

locked · 226h 17m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

Senegal beat Iraq 5-0. Goals: H. Diarra (4'), I. Sarr (56'), P. Gueye (59'), P. Gueye (71'), I. Ndiaye (82').

The market priced Senegal as favorite at 79.8% — it held. The final score carried a 3.9% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Senegal at 79.8% — it held.

Senegal
79.8%
1.26
Draw
13.4%
7.50
Iraq
6.8%
14.70

Best odds per outcome · Matchbook

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 5-0 (the model gave it 3.9%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

Senegal – Iraq

  1. 2–0
    13.6%
  2. 3–0
    11.8%
  3. 1–0
    10.5%
Both teams score: 42.6%Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%Expected goals: 3.2

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (3.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

Senegal62.6% → 78.4%▲ 15.8

Draw22.9% → 14.3%▼ 8.6

Iraq14.5% → 7.4%▼ 7.1

28 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

Propover 0.5 1h
✓ GANADO★★★★★1.22
Propno draw
✓ GANADO★★★★★1.23
Propbtts yes
✗ PERDIDO★★★★★1.26
totalover 3.5
✓ GANADO★★★+47.3%2.40

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Recent form

Senegal

LL

Goals: 1.5 for · 3.0 against (avg)

Iraq

LL

Goals: 0.5 for · 3.5 against (avg)

Full stats & AI analysis →

Group standings

Group I

  1. 1FranceFrance3+89
  2. 2NorwayNorway3+16
  3. 3SenegalSenegal3+23
  4. 4IraqIraq3-110

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

Senegal

  • I. Sarr

    I. Sarr

    Attacker · Crystal Palace

    7.76

    at the World Cup

    4+1

    G+A

  • H. Diarra

    H. Diarra

    Attacker · Sunderland

    7.28

    at the World Cup

    2+0

    G+A

  • I. Gueye

    I. Gueye

    Midfielder · Everton

    7.19

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

Iraq

  • A. Sher

    A. Sher

    Midfielder · Sarpsborg 08 FF

    7.14

    Eliteserien

    0+1

    G+A

  • Aymen Hussein

    Aymen Hussein

    Attacker · Iraq

    7.07

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

  • Kevin Yakob

    Kevin Yakob

    Midfielder · Iraq

    6.84

    King's Cup

    7+5

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of Senegal vs Iraq?+

It ended Senegal 5-0 Iraq at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: H. Diarra (4'), I. Sarr (56'), P. Gueye (59'), P. Gueye (71'), I. Ndiaye (82').

Who was the favorite in Senegal vs Iraq?+

The market had Senegal as favorite at 79.8% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was Senegal vs Iraq played?+

It was played on Friday 26 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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