Result: Portugal 1-1 DR Congo
World Cup 2026 ·
Portugal
DR Congo
✗ Pick LOST — Over
locked · 224h 30m before kickoff
What happened
Portugal drew with DR Congo 1-1.
The market priced Portugal as favorite at 74.8% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 7.8% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Portugal at 74.8% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · 1xBet
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-1 (the model gave it 7.8%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Portugal – DR Congo
- 2–015.3%
- 1–013.9%
- 3–011.2%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Portugal74.8% → 73.8%▼ 1
Draw16.3% → 17.4%▲ 1.1
DR Congo8.8% → 8.7%▼ 0.1
21 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Portugal
Gonçalo Inácio
Defender · Sporting CP
7.59
Primeira Liga
3+3
G+A
Bruno Fernandes
Midfielder · Manchester United
7.58
at the World Cup
0+1
G+A
Nuno Mendes
Defender · Paris Saint Germain
7.49
at the World Cup
1+0
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Portugal vs DR Congo?+
It ended Portugal 1-1 DR Congo at the 2026 World Cup.
Who was the favorite in Portugal vs DR Congo?+
The market had Portugal as favorite at 74.8% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Portugal vs DR Congo played?+
It was played on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
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