Result: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt
World Cup 2026 ·
New Zealand
Egypt
✓ Pick WON — over 1.5
locked · 136h 17m before kickoff
What happened
New Zealand fell to Egypt 1-3. Goals: F. Surman (15'), M. Zico (58'), M. Salah (67'), Trézéguet (82').
The market priced Egypt as favorite at 61.2% — it held. The final score carried a 5.5% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Egypt at 61.2% — it held.
Best odds per outcome · Betfair
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-3 (the model gave it 5.5%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
New Zealand – Egypt
- 0–114.5%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.8%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
New Zealand18.9% → 16.2%▼ 2.7
Draw26.3% → 23.9%▼ 2.4
Egypt54.7% → 59.8%▲ 5.1
25 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
New Zealand
Goals: 2.0 for · 2.0 against (avg)
Egypt
Goals: 1.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group G
- 1
Belgium3+45 - 2Egypt3+25
- 3
Iran303 - 4New Zealand3-61
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
New Zealand
E. Just
Midfielder · Motherwell
7.85
at the World Cup
3+0
G+A
F. de Vries
Defender · Auckland
7.32
A-League
1+7
G+A
A. Rufer
Midfielder · Wellington Phoenix
7.18
A-League
2+1
G+A
Egypt
Mostafa Shobeir
Goalkeeper · Al Ahly
7.43
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Mohamed Abdelmonem
Defender · Egypt
7.3
Africa Cup of Nations Qualification
0+0
G+A
Mohamed Salah
Attacker · Liverpool
7.2
at the World Cup
1+2
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of New Zealand vs Egypt?+
It ended New Zealand 1-3 Egypt at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: F. Surman (15'), M. Zico (58'), M. Salah (67'), Trézéguet (82').
Who was the favorite in New Zealand vs Egypt?+
The market had Egypt as favorite at 61.2% implied probability — the favorite held.
When was New Zealand vs Egypt played?+
It was played on Monday 22 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
18+ · Edgely sells analysis, we don't process bets. If you bet, do it responsibly.