Result: Iran 2-2 New Zealand
World Cup 2026 ·
Iran
New Zealand
✗ Pick LOST — Iran
locked · 194h 13m before kickoff
What happened
Iran drew with New Zealand 2-2. Goals: E. Just (7'), R. Rezaeian (32'), E. Just (54'), M. Mohebbi (64').
The market priced Iran as favorite at 50.4% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 3.8% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Iran at 50.4% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · Matchbook
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-2 (the model gave it 3.8%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Iran – New Zealand
- 1–014.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.6%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Iran51.4% → 50.2%▼ 1.2
Draw26.9% → 28.4%▲ 1.5
New Zealand21.7% → 21.4%▼ 0.3
19 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Group standings
Group G
- 1
Belgium3+45 - 2
Egypt3+25 - 3Iran303
- 4New Zealand3-61
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Iran
A. Beiranvand
Goalkeeper · Tractor Sazi
7.67
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
R. Rezaeian
Defender · Esteghlal FC
7.6
at the World Cup
2+1
G+A
S. Khalilzadeh
Defender · Tractor Sazi
7.17
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
New Zealand
E. Just
Midfielder · Motherwell
7.85
at the World Cup
3+0
G+A
F. de Vries
Defender · Auckland
7.32
A-League
1+7
G+A
A. Rufer
Midfielder · Wellington Phoenix
7.18
A-League
2+1
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Iran vs New Zealand?+
It ended Iran 2-2 New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: E. Just (7'), R. Rezaeian (32'), E. Just (54'), M. Mohebbi (64').
Who was the favorite in Iran vs New Zealand?+
The market had Iran as favorite at 50.4% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Iran vs New Zealand played?+
It was played on Tuesday 16 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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