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Result: France 3-1 Senegal

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
France

France

3–1
Senegal

Senegal

✗ Pick LOST — Under

locked · 370h 42m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

France beat Senegal 3-1. Goals: K. Mbappé (66'), B. Barcola (82'), I. Mbaye (90'+5'), K. Mbappé (90'+6').

The market priced France as favorite at 65.3% — it held. The final score carried a 6.3% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was France at 65.3% — it held.

France
65.3%
1.55
Draw
22%
4.60
Senegal
12.7%
8.00

Best odds per outcome · 1xBet

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 3-1 (the model gave it 6.3%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

France – Senegal

  1. 1–0
    12.8%
  2. 2–0
    12.6%
  3. 1–1
    9.8%
Both teams score: 45.9%Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%Expected goals: 2.7

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

France65.2% → 64.3%▼ 0.9

Draw21.3% → 21.9%▲ 0.6

Senegal13.5% → 13.8%▲ 0.3

20 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

totalUnder
✗ PERDIDO★★★+6.4%1.97

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Group standings

Group I

  1. 1FranceFrance3+89
  2. 2NorwayNorway3+16
  3. 3SenegalSenegal3+23
  4. 4IraqIraq3-110

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

France

  • Kylian Mbappé

    Kylian Mbappé

    Attacker · Real Madrid

    8.3

    at the World Cup

    8+3

    G+A

  • O. Dembélé

    O. Dembélé

    Midfielder · Paris Saint Germain

    7.96

    at the World Cup

    5+2

    G+A

  • A. Tchouaméni

    A. Tchouaméni

    Midfielder · Real Madrid

    7.53

    at the World Cup

    0+1

    G+A

Senegal

  • I. Sarr

    I. Sarr

    Attacker · Crystal Palace

    7.76

    at the World Cup

    4+1

    G+A

  • H. Diarra

    H. Diarra

    Attacker · Sunderland

    7.28

    at the World Cup

    2+0

    G+A

  • I. Gueye

    I. Gueye

    Midfielder · Everton

    7.19

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of France vs Senegal?+

It ended France 3-1 Senegal at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: K. Mbappé (66'), B. Barcola (82'), I. Mbaye (90'+5'), K. Mbappé (90'+6').

Who was the favorite in France vs Senegal?+

The market had France as favorite at 65.3% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was France vs Senegal played?+

It was played on Tuesday 16 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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