Result: Egypt 1-1 Iran
World Cup 2026 ·
Egypt
Iran
✓ Pick WON — over 1.5
locked · 258h 17m before kickoff
What happened
Egypt drew with Iran 1-1. Goals: M. Saber (5'), R. Rezaeian (14').
The market priced Egypt as favorite at 39.2% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 13.3% model probability.
The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.
What the market said before kickoff
Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Egypt at 39.2% — it didn't hold.
Best odds per outcome · Betsson
What the model said about the score
These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-1 (the model gave it 13.3%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.
Egypt – Iran
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.5%
Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (1.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.
How the line moved
Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.
Egypt38.9% → 39.1%▲ 0.2
Draw31.1% → 35.8%▲ 4.7
Iran29.9% → 25.1%▼ 4.8
27 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed
Edgely's pick
All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.
★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·
Recent form
Egypt
Goals: 2.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Iran
Goals: 1.0 for · 1.0 against (avg)
Group standings
Group G
- 1
Belgium3+45 - 2Egypt3+25
- 3Iran303
- 4
New Zealand3-61
Players to watch
Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.
Egypt
Mostafa Shobeir
Goalkeeper · Al Ahly
7.43
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
Mohamed Abdelmonem
Defender · Egypt
7.3
Africa Cup of Nations Qualification
0+0
G+A
Mohamed Salah
Attacker · Liverpool
7.2
at the World Cup
1+2
G+A
Iran
A. Beiranvand
Goalkeeper · Tractor Sazi
7.67
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
R. Rezaeian
Defender · Esteghlal FC
7.6
at the World Cup
2+1
G+A
S. Khalilzadeh
Defender · Tractor Sazi
7.17
at the World Cup
0+0
G+A
FAQ
What was the final score of Egypt vs Iran?+
It ended Egypt 1-1 Iran at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: M. Saber (5'), R. Rezaeian (14').
Who was the favorite in Egypt vs Iran?+
The market had Egypt as favorite at 39.2% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.
When was Egypt vs Iran played?+
It was played on Saturday 27 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.
Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+
Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.
More World Cup predictions
- Prediction: Spain vs Belgium () →
- Prediction: Norway vs England () →
- Prediction: Argentina vs Switzerland () →
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