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Result: Croatia 2-1 Ghana

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
Croatia

Croatia

2–1
Ghana

Ghana

✗ Pick LOST — Ghana or draw

locked · 228h 17m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

Croatia beat Ghana 2-1. Goals: P. Sucic (31'), D. Luckassen (73'), N. Vlasic (83').

The market priced Croatia as favorite at 54.8% — it held. The final score carried a 9.2% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Croatia at 54.8% — it held.

Croatia
54.8%
1.82
Draw
28.5%
3.50
Ghana
16.6%
6.00

Best odds per outcome · Matchbook

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 2-1 (the model gave it 9.2%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

Croatia – Ghana

  1. 1–0
    14.8%
  2. 2–0
    11.7%
  3. 1–1
    11.6%
Both teams score: 43.4%Over 2.5 goals: 42.4%Expected goals: 2.4

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

Croatia54.4% → 54.6%▲ 0.2

Draw26% → 28.1%▲ 2.1

Ghana19.7% → 17.3%▼ 2.4

27 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

PropGhana or draw
✗ PERDIDO★★★★★1.15
Propover 0.5 1h
✓ GANADO★★★★1.36
totalover 2.5
✓ GANADO★★★★+41.3%2.08

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Recent form

Croatia

LW

Goals: 1.5 for · 2.0 against (avg)

Ghana

WD

Goals: 0.5 for · 0.0 against (avg)

Full stats & AI analysis →

Group standings

Group L

  1. 1EnglandEngland3+47
  2. 2CroatiaCroatia306
  3. 3GhanaGhana304
  4. 4PanamaPanama3-40

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

Croatia

  • P. Sucic

    P. Sucic

    Midfielder · Inter

    7.21

    at the World Cup

    1+1

    G+A

  • P. Musa

    P. Musa

    Attacker · FC Dallas

    7.18

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

  • M. Baturina

    M. Baturina

    Midfielder · Como

    7.17

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

Ghana

  • L. Zigi

    L. Zigi

    Goalkeeper · FC ST. Gallen

    8.57

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • C. Bonsu Baah

    C. Bonsu Baah

    Attacker · Al-Qadisiyah FC

    7.26

    Pro League

    3+12

    G+A

  • D. Luckassen

    D. Luckassen

    Defender

    7.25

    at the World Cup

    1+0

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of Croatia vs Ghana?+

It ended Croatia 2-1 Ghana at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: P. Sucic (31'), D. Luckassen (73'), N. Vlasic (83').

Who was the favorite in Croatia vs Ghana?+

The market had Croatia as favorite at 54.8% implied probability — the favorite held.

When was Croatia vs Ghana played?+

It was played on Saturday 27 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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