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Result: Belgium 1-1 Egypt

World Cup 2026 ·

WORLDCUPFT
Belgium

Belgium

1–1
Egypt

Egypt

✗ Pick LOST — Belgium

locked · 188h 13m before kickoff

Full track record →

What happened

Belgium drew with Egypt 1-1. Goals: E. Ashour (20'), M. Hany (66', a.g.).

The market priced Belgium as favorite at 59.7% — it didn't hold. The final score carried a 10.8% model probability.

The pick's outcome is above and is audited into the public record.

What the market said before kickoff

Pre-kickoff implied probabilities, bookmaker margin removed. The favorite was Belgium at 59.7% — it didn't hold.

Belgium
59.7%
1.69
Draw
24.6%
4.10
Egypt
15.8%
6.40

Best odds per outcome · GTbets

What the model said about the score

These were the most likely scorelines before kickoff per market odds. It ended 1-1 (the model gave it 10.8%) — that's what real match uncertainty looks like.

Belgium – Egypt

  1. 1–0
    13.2%
  2. 2–0
    11.8%
  3. 1–1
    10.8%
Both teams score: 46.6%Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%Expected goals: 2.6

Poisson distribution over the goals implied by market odds (2.5 line + no-vig 1X2). Transparent method — not a promise.

How the line moved

Each outcome's implied probability since the match entered our system. A strong market move is information too.

28/5today

Belgium56.8% → 60%▲ 3.2

Draw24.1% → 24%▼ 0.1

Egypt19.1% → 16%▼ 3.1

19 days of data · daily median across books, vig removed

Edgely's pick

ResultBelgium
✗ PERDIDO★★★+7.7%1.71

All picks locked with a timestamp before kickoff — auditable in the public record.

★ = analysis confidence (1-5) · +X% ·

Group standings

Group G

  1. 1BelgiumBelgium3+45
  2. 2EgyptEgypt3+25
  3. 3IranIran303
  4. 4New ZealandNew Zealand3-61

Players to watch

Each side's highest-level players by actual performance: World Cup rating once they've played, otherwise their club season. Club and league stay visible so you can weigh them — a 7.2 doesn't mean the same in every league.

Belgium

  • L. Trossard

    L. Trossard

    Midfielder · Arsenal

    7.72

    at the World Cup

    2+2

    G+A

  • Y. Tielemans

    Y. Tielemans

    Midfielder · Aston Villa

    7.48

    at the World Cup

    2+0

    G+A

  • N. Raskin

    N. Raskin

    Midfielder · Rangers

    7.34

    at the World Cup

    0+2

    G+A

Egypt

  • Mostafa Shobeir

    Mostafa Shobeir

    Goalkeeper · Al Ahly

    7.43

    at the World Cup

    0+0

    G+A

  • Mohamed Abdelmonem

    Mohamed Abdelmonem

    Defender · Egypt

    7.3

    Africa Cup of Nations Qualification

    0+0

    G+A

  • Mohamed Salah

    Mohamed Salah

    Attacker · Liverpool

    7.2

    at the World Cup

    1+2

    G+A

FAQ

What was the final score of Belgium vs Egypt?+

It ended Belgium 1-1 Egypt at the 2026 World Cup. Goals: E. Ashour (20'), M. Hany (66').

Who was the favorite in Belgium vs Egypt?+

The market had Belgium as favorite at 59.7% implied probability — the favorite didn't hold.

When was Belgium vs Egypt played?+

It was played on Monday 15 June 2026 at the 2026 World Cup.

Is Edgely's pick for this match trustworthy?+

Every pick is frozen with a timestamp BEFORE kickoff and enters the public record — win or lose. No retroactive edits: you can audit the full history at /track.

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